Declining enrollment hurts Michigan schools

From John Curry, October 19, 2008

Subject: Not to worry, Ohio supers, your pupil loss to charters are just "normal fluctuations!" The Fordham institute appears again!

"Ohio's declines may represent normal fluctuations, said Emmy Partin, a Columbus-based researcher with the Thomas B. Fordham Institute."

Toledo Blade, October 19, 2008

Declining enrollment hurts Michigan schools

Drop in students means less state funding

Photo Patti Gallardo and her son Zach, 16, go over a lesson. The economy is forcing the Gallardos to leave Adrian, and the area's public schools, for Kentucky and new job opportunities.

By ANGIE SCHMITT BLADE STAFF WRITER

TEMPERANCE - At Bedford Public Schools, student rolls are shrinking - similar to what's happening at two of every three districts across Michigan.

Last month, on the state's semiannual "count day," there were 151 fewer students in Bedford classrooms than last year.

Similar shortfalls emerged in Ida, Morenci, Monroe, Jefferson, Mason, Addison, and Airport schools. And among those eight districts, officials recorded 628 fewer students than last year, according to preliminary figures.

Audited counts aren't out until next month, but administrators in southeast Michigan are uneasy. The state predicts a loss of about 24,000 students from public districts and charter schools this year.

Shrinking enrollment means corresponding losses in funding for individual districts.

Airport Community Schools in Monroe County expects to lose $700,000 in state funding from its $24 million budget.

Bedford anticipates a loss of more than $1 million. The district receives $7,316 per student - or 86 percent of its funding - from the state, based on enrollment figures.

"Next year it's going to hurt," Bedford Superintendent Jon White said. "Financially, economically, we're very concerned."

If estimates for this year are correct, Michigan will have witnessed the loss of 86,000 students - or 5 percent of its student population - over five years, according to the state's Senate Fiscal Agency. Student losses since 2003 are expected to cost school districts $650 million in state funding.

"It's problematic for a lot of districts," Jan Ellis, a state Department of Education spokesman, said. "Every student that they lose is a loss in revenue."

Two out of three public school districts in Michigan are shrinking, said Liz Boyd, a spokesman for Gov. Jennifer Granholm. Declining-enrollment grants are available to districts that qualify, she said.

About $30 million has been allocated this year to help districts with lower populations, but state leaders have estimated an additional $220 million is needed to help the schools.

"There simply aren't as many school-aged children as there used to be," Ms. Boyd said. "There are more choices in school, home-schooling. There's also mobility, given Michigan's challenged economy."

In Ohio, school systems haven't experienced such dramatic declines.

Over the past four years, Ohio districts have lost 30,000 students, or 1.69 percent of the student population, according to the Ohio Department of Education.

Ohio's declines may represent normal fluctuations, said Emmy Partin, a Columbus-based researcher with the Thomas B. Fordham Institute.

Most of Ohio's decreases in student enrollment are concentrated in the state's eight urban school districts.

Ten years ago, during the 1997-98 school year, Toledo Public Schools had more than 39,000 students enrolled. In recent years that number has fallen to about 27,000.

The most recent enrollment figures for TPS will not be available for a few weeks, Superintendent John Foley said.

The situation appears to be more serious in Michigan's Monroe County, where every public school district has experienced some decline this year, according to preliminary totals from the county's Intermediate School District.

The Lenawee County Intermediate School District is awaiting this year's figures from member districts. But last year, the county lost 539 students, or about 2.5 percent of the total student population, Superintendent Steve Krusich said.

Don Spencer, superintendent of Monroe County's Intermediate School District, said local districts were prepared for a decline, but not at this level.

"It's pretty pervasive actually," he said. "We're lower than even anticipated."

At Monroe Public Schools, projections show the district could lose about 1,500 students in the next 10 years, said Ken Laub, the district's assistant su-perintendent for business and finance.

"The trend is that we will consistently have less students," he said. "Obviously the district is going to have to adjust dramatically, by the number of staff we have, the number of support, the number of buildings."

In Bedford, this year's kindergarten class is about 100 students smaller than the senior class that graduated last year. Meanwhile, about 50 students from the district's middle and high schools have moved out of the state, district officials reported.

Mr. White of Bedford blames the state's economy - as well as lower birth rates - for the decline in students.

"We have so many people that are tied to the auto industry," he said. "When these jobs go away, people are forced to look elsewhere and there aren't a lot of jobs here."

Michigan demographer Kenneth Darga said the decrease can be blamed in equal parts on lower birth rates and the economically motivated out-of-state migration.

Loss in statewide population can be expected when the unemployment rate is higher than the national average, Mr. Darga said.

Michigan's jobless rate is the highest in the country at 8.9 percent in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The state has lost 336,000 jobs since 2000, the longest employment decrease in the state since the Great Depression, according to research from the University of Michigan.

Last year, Michigan suffered its biggest population loss since 1983, Mr. Darga said, a net loss of about 30,000 residents.

Southeast Michigan has been disproportionately affected, said Jeff Nutting, lead planning analyst with the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments. The seven-county area, including Monroe, Washtenaw, Macomb, Livingston, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne counties, recorded a net loss of 24,855 residents last year, he said.

The region's population was fairly stable until 2006, when it began an unmitigated fall. Last year, about 45,000 people moved out of southeast Michigan. The total population loss was lessened only because births outnumbered deaths.

Mr. Nutting said southeast Michigan is home to half the state's population and "is hardest hit in terms of job losses and shut downs."

"It's not uncommon for southeast Michigan to bear the larger brunt of population changes when the economy turns bad," he said.

Patti Gallardo, 41, and her husband, Gilbert, are both lifelong residents of the Adrian area. But in June, Mr. Gallardo received word that his employer, Brazeway Inc., a refrigeration and tubing company, was closing its manufacturing plant in Adrian.

Mr. Gallardo was offered a job at another Brazeway plant in Kentucky, and the family is preparing to move, taking their son - a 10th grader at Sand Creek High School - along.

Ms. Gallardo doesn't like the idea of leaving her family and her job. But she's grateful her husband was offered a job following the plant closing. Many others weren't, she said.

"It's really sad that it's come down to this," she said. "But you gotta' do what you gotta' do, I guess."

Unlike Michigan, Ohio's overall population has not declined over the past seven years, although it has grown at a much smaller rate than the national average.

Ohio's population rose by about 1 percent between 2000 and 2007, from 11.35 million to 11.47 million. The national average for that time period was 6.6 percent growth.

In addition to the economy, Michigan schools are suffering from the effects of lower birth rates, experts say.

This year, schools nationwide are faced with a smaller kindergarten class born during a "baby bust," Mr. Darga said. Historically, birth rates have oscillated in cycles that reflect the low birth rates experienced during the Great Depression, followed by the high birth rates after World War II, or the Baby Boom, Mr. Darga said.

Five years ago, the relatively few offspring of those born during the Depression were having children. Those children entered kindergarten this year in fewer numbers than last year's senior class, which was born to Baby Boomers, he said.

One of Monroe County's two charter schools, Triumph Charter Academy, may account for part of the decline. The charter school experienced an increase of 114 students this year, according to preliminary head counts.

But statewide figures chart a decline in charter and public schools alike. And Monroe and Lenawee educators believe students aren't leaving to seek better educational opportunities.

"All three of our buildings made their annual yearly progress," Ida Superintendent Marv Dick said. "I don't believe that people are leaving Ida because of the quality of education."

Administrators in districts such as Ida, Bedford, and Monroe say they are left with little choice but to make do with less and hope for an economic about-face.

Airport Schools has laid off eight teachers and more layoffs are possible, Superintendent Henry Schafer said. The district also has reduced its custodial staff and teachers' aides.

"When we're losing 100 students every year, it makes it very difficult to set budgets," he said. "It seems like we're at bare bones right now, so it's very difficult to even look at layoffs."

The Morenci Area School district is contemplating layoffs after losing 29 students, Superintendent Kyle Griffith said.

Over 10 years, Bedford gradually has lost about 300 students, Mr. White said. To offset the declines, the district is drawing money from its savings and reducing its staff through attrition, a practice the superintendent refers to as "treading water."

In Bedford, state standardized test scores remain high and athletic programs are strong. The only missing piece seems to be the economy, Mr. White said.

But school officials worry about the future. "Next year, when we set our budget for the following spring, we will have to look at the programs we preserve and make some hard determinations," he said.

Blade staff writer James Joyce III contributed to this report. Contact Angie Schmitt at: aschmitt@theblade.com or 419-724-6104.