4. Have any contingency plans been developed yet? This was suggested by Leone and Buser and many STRS retirees.
RESPONSE: In the investment world, the markets (bonds, stocks, international) react instantaneously to bad news. Therefore, one cannot protect a fund from the immediate declines that result from that bad event without hindering the fund's ability to achieve its required actuarial rate of return over the long term. However, once the event happens and the market declines, it is important to assess whether that negative event has been fully discounted (or priced) in the market place or if a further decline is likely. This decision is the critical and most difficult one.
Many people commonly believe the events of Sept. 11, 2001, caused the bear market earlier this decade. In fact, prior to Sept. 11, the stock market had already declined nearly 30% and the recession officially ended in that September quarter of 2001. The stock market began its decline in the winter of 2000 due primarily to the longevity of the bull market, extremely high valuations and an impending recession. The U.S. economy resumed its growth in the fourth quarter of 2001 and has now logged 16 consecutive quarters of real growth.
A few people believed that further, devastating attacks on the United States or other negative world events were likely over the past four years and that STRS Ohio should have significantly adjusted the asset mix to prepare for it. However, had STRS Ohio eliminated all equities and real estate, thus placing the portfolio in cash and bonds, STRS Ohio would be approximately a $50 billion fund today, not the more than $65 billion fund that it actually is. Forecasting exactly how the stock market is going to behave is nearly impossible. Alan Greenspan, probably the most knowledgeable financial expert in the United States, cautioned in late 1996 that the U.S. stock market was extremely overvalued. The stock market continued to rise, producing a gain of more than 100% in the 3-1/2 years after his statement.
Given the above discussion, large institutional pension funds adopt a long-term asset allocation that will produce the desired return over the long-term within an acceptable level of risk, while recognizing there will be volatility in the short-term. This is effectively a contingency plan for a pension fund with a long-term horizon. The Retirement Board completed a major asset/liability study 10 months ago and implemented a new asset allocation mix that did not significantly increase the risk of the portfolio. The benefit of a long-term asset allocation strategy was demonstrated by STRS Ohio's latest 10-year annual compounded return of 8.3% per year, which exceeds the required actuarial rate of return. These returns were achieved despite the difficult, low return period of 2001-2003. In addition, while markets can be very volatile over shorter periods, STRS Ohio attempts to mitigate its volatility of returns by utilizing tactical asset allocation in the Annual Investment Plan and the four-year actuarial smoothing.
Should the market go through a sustained period of subpar returns, or be inpacted by a catastrophic event, the staff, Retirement Board and board investment consultant would review the assumptions in the asset/liability study to confirm their appropriateness in that environment.
5. Has a replacement for Steve Mitchell been trained to run the Investment Department in case something should happen to Steve? We cannot afford to overlook such strategic planning.
RESPONSE: It is really not appropriate for us to discuss specific personnel issues. However, Steve Mitchell has always realized the importance of succession planning and has had one or two assistant directors of Investments in place at STRS Ohio for the past 15 years. Presently, he has two assistant directors of Investments. Both have primary responsibility for an asset class in addition to serving as a backup to Steve. While they are closely involved in all investment strategy and operational decisions involving the investment department, Steve keeps them informed on all facets of the administrative side of investments as well as key issues and topics important to the organization as a whole. Also he requires that they understand the actuarial statements of STRS Ohio and that at least one of them attend the ORSC monthly meetings. Both individuals have MBAs and have been employed by STRS Ohio for 20 years.
<< Home