John Bos: Numbers for Tim Myers
John Bos to Tim Myers, December 7, 2008
As far as being "better off now (as of the October downturn than we were prior to 9/11" 2001, I cannot find one statistical measure that would validate his statement. Even today's ISM factory index contracted in November at the fastest pace in 26 years. The ISM factory index dropped to 36.2, the lowest level since 1982. Maybe it is the unemployment number of 6.5% to which he is referring. Although unemployment is now higher than the peak following the last recession in 2001, it is still well below the peak unemployment rate during the 73-75 recession when it peaked at 9%; or, the 10.8% we experienced in 81-82. It is currently still below the 7.6% average peak during the ten recessions in the past 60 years Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board dropped in October to the lowest level since their survey began in 1967. This just means that consumers are feeling worse than they did during other eco nomic cycles when unemployment was much higher and inflation was a big problem. I do not recall the credit markets seizing in September 2001. The Federal Reserve and the United States Treasury were not in the markets daily.
The twenty-four completed bear markets saw an average decline of 36.7% and an average length of 15.8 months. Post WWII, there have been eleven completed bear markets with an average decline of nearly 29.3% and 14.1 months in length. The current bear market that began in October 2007 has now declined 42.3% (this figure is as of mid-November) and has lasted 12.7 months.
I do not mean to be a doom and gloomer, as I remain optimistic and hopeful in the leadership of the United States of America and in the people with whom we share this great nation. I hope that I have provided to you some information to formulate a counter to his broad based and nebulous "better off" comment.
You can't control the markets. Let's talk soon about what you can control.
...~Kathleen Stephan, Wachovia Securities, LLC
Subject: "Better off" addendum***CORRECTED This is a verbatim email that I received from one of my brokers regarding 9/11 market compared to today.
Tim,
Here is the ENTIRE message that was sent to me. Regardless of whether I heard you correctly or incorrectly, we have a MAJOR PROBLEM with STRS Assets. I hope that this market turns around quickly. STRS Associates can make all of the statements regarding the market turning. I agree that it will probably turn quickly and decisively, but there is no guarantee. We have a big mess that has been created by Wall Street, Washington, Greed, and yes, Columbus. This message is not sent to be hostile, but rather to show you that many ot hers have MAJOR concerns regarding the United States Economy.
I hope that these statistics help you to understand the issues regarding the "CRISIS" that we all face You, Me, and STRS!!!!!!
I am working on several other projects regarding STRS and will share them with you and others in the near future. I need data from Mr. Nehf to complete the new project.
I WILL NOT GO AWAY!!!!
John Bos
Subject: FW: "Better off" addendum***CORRECTED
While the September 11, 2001 attacks did have a heavy emotional and economic impact, I too have to agree with you that what we are living through now is much worse. It could be that I feel the impact of the 09.11.01 attacks were somewhat geographically localized. This is not.
If you remember, the markets did not open on September 11, and the markets remained closed until September 17.& nbsp; When the markets opened, the DJIA was off 684 points. That represented a 7.1% decline. By the end of the week, the DJIA had fallen 1369.7 points or 14.3 percent. We often see how the attacks hampered New York City's productivity, infrastructure and economy. Today, we are dealing with historic declines in productivity, economy, housing and manufacturing for this country as well as the global community.
[Click images to enlarge.]
Tim,
Here is the ENTIRE message that was sent to me. Regardless of whether I heard you correctly or incorrectly, we have a MAJOR PROBLEM with STRS Assets. I hope that this market turns around quickly. STRS Associates can make all of the statements regarding the market turning. I agree that it will probably turn quickly and decisively, but there is no guarantee. We have a big mess that has been created by Wall Street, Washington, Greed, and yes, Columbus. This message is not sent to be hostile, but rather to show you that many ot hers have MAJOR concerns regarding the United States Economy.
I hope that these statistics help you to understand the issues regarding the "CRISIS" that we all face You, Me, and STRS!!!!!!
I am working on several other projects regarding STRS and will share them with you and others in the near future. I need data from Mr. Nehf to complete the new project.
I WILL NOT GO AWAY!!!!
John Bos
Subject: FW: "Better off" addendum***CORRECTED
While the September 11, 2001 attacks did have a heavy emotional and economic impact, I too have to agree with you that what we are living through now is much worse. It could be that I feel the impact of the 09.11.01 attacks were somewhat geographically localized. This is not.
If you remember, the markets did not open on September 11, and the markets remained closed until September 17.& nbsp; When the markets opened, the DJIA was off 684 points. That represented a 7.1% decline. By the end of the week, the DJIA had fallen 1369.7 points or 14.3 percent. We often see how the attacks hampered New York City's productivity, infrastructure and economy. Today, we are dealing with historic declines in productivity, economy, housing and manufacturing for this country as well as the global community.
[Click images to enlarge.]
As far as being "better off now (as of the October downturn than we were prior to 9/11" 2001, I cannot find one statistical measure that would validate his statement. Even today's ISM factory index contracted in November at the fastest pace in 26 years. The ISM factory index dropped to 36.2, the lowest level since 1982. Maybe it is the unemployment number of 6.5% to which he is referring. Although unemployment is now higher than the peak following the last recession in 2001, it is still well below the peak unemployment rate during the 73-75 recession when it peaked at 9%; or, the 10.8% we experienced in 81-82. It is currently still below the 7.6% average peak during the ten recessions in the past 60 years Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board dropped in October to the lowest level since their survey began in 1967. This just means that consumers are feeling worse than they did during other eco nomic cycles when unemployment was much higher and inflation was a big problem. I do not recall the credit markets seizing in September 2001. The Federal Reserve and the United States Treasury were not in the markets daily.
The twenty-four completed bear markets saw an average decline of 36.7% and an average length of 15.8 months. Post WWII, there have been eleven completed bear markets with an average decline of nearly 29.3% and 14.1 months in length. The current bear market that began in October 2007 has now declined 42.3% (this figure is as of mid-November) and has lasted 12.7 months.
I do not mean to be a doom and gloomer, as I remain optimistic and hopeful in the leadership of the United States of America and in the people with whom we share this great nation. I hope that I have provided to you some information to formulate a counter to his broad based and nebulous "better off" comment.
You can't control the markets. Let's talk soon about what you can control.
...~Kathleen Stephan, Wachovia Securities, LLC
The information expressed herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable, but are not necessarily complete and can not be guaranteed.
*** This is the addendum that he sent me objecting to my original wording.
*** This is the addendum that he sent me objecting to my original wording.
"John,
The correct statement is that “we are better off now (as of the October downturn) than we were prior to 9/11.” Please make that correction in your question to the blind cc’d recipients.
Tim"
-----
Your email address on this communication is blind intentionally. I had a meeting on Saturday afternoon with a board member of the Ohio State Teachers Retirement System (Mr. Tim Myers) who is a resident of the Lima Area.
The correct statement is that “we are better off now (as of the October downturn) than we were prior to 9/11.” Please make that correction in your question to the blind cc’d recipients.
Tim"
-----
Your email address on this communication is blind intentionally. I had a meeting on Saturday afternoon with a board member of the Ohio State Teachers Retirement System (Mr. Tim Myers) who is a resident of the Lima Area.
He made a statement that I would like you to respond. According to Tim Myers, the recent correction in the market (drop, or whatever other term you wish to use) has been much less than the reaction to the 9/11 incident. I do not agree with his statement. My reason is that this correction has been a long, slow, and broad change that appears to extend into the future. The 9/11 correction was a quick drop and a quick recovery. Was the 9/11 market drop to a lower level that the current 2008 bottom? Obviously neither you, nor the STRS Board Member, or I know if we have indeed reached the bottom of this current market. There are a lot of issues that are on the table and probably a few that are under the table. I do not recall the massive government intervention following the 9/11 terrorist attack on America. Perhaps my memory is fading in the twilight of my life.
Please give me your reaction to his evaluation of the market changes. I request that your "evaluation" be honest and able to substantiate with valid statistics that defend your position. Your response will be shared with others but your name and title will be kept confidential. There is a possibility that your response will be printed for many others to read on the Internet. You are welcome to consult or copy information from your investment staff to reply more accurately to my request.
Thanks for your kindness in helping me to better understand the "expertise" of the new Ohio State Teacher Retirement System Board Member.
I also wish to thank you for your personal assistance to my wife and myself during the past 12 months. This has not been an easy time for your profession, for STRS Ohio, or for me as a private investor.
Sincerely,
John Bos
Sincerely,
John Bos
posted by Kathie Bracy at 11:41 AM
<< Home